2,134 research outputs found
Copula Processes
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between
arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal
distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model,
Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard
deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use
Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte
Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our
model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH,
GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time,
and model a rich class of covariance structures.Comment: 11 pages, 1 table, 1 figure. Submitted for publication. Since last
version: minor edits and reformattin
Kernel Interpolation for Scalable Structured Gaussian Processes (KISS-GP)
We introduce a new structured kernel interpolation (SKI) framework, which
generalises and unifies inducing point methods for scalable Gaussian processes
(GPs). SKI methods produce kernel approximations for fast computations through
kernel interpolation. The SKI framework clarifies how the quality of an
inducing point approach depends on the number of inducing (aka interpolation)
points, interpolation strategy, and GP covariance kernel. SKI also provides a
mechanism to create new scalable kernel methods, through choosing different
kernel interpolation strategies. Using SKI, with local cubic kernel
interpolation, we introduce KISS-GP, which is 1) more scalable than inducing
point alternatives, 2) naturally enables Kronecker and Toeplitz algebra for
substantial additional gains in scalability, without requiring any grid data,
and 3) can be used for fast and expressive kernel learning. KISS-GP costs O(n)
time and storage for GP inference. We evaluate KISS-GP for kernel matrix
approximation, kernel learning, and natural sound modelling.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure
Student-t Processes as Alternatives to Gaussian Processes
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian
process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form
expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a
Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over
the covariance kernel of a Gaussian process model. We show surprising
equivalences between different hierarchical Gaussian process models leading to
Student-t processes, and derive a new sampling scheme for the inverse Wishart
process, which helps elucidate these equivalences. Overall, we show that a
Student-t process can retain the attractive properties of a Gaussian process --
a nonparametric representation, analytic marginal and predictive distributions,
and easy model selection through covariance kernels -- but has enhanced
flexibility, and predictive covariances that, unlike a Gaussian process,
explicitly depend on the values of training observations. We verify empirically
that a Student-t process is especially useful in situations where there are
changes in covariance structure, or in applications like Bayesian optimization,
where accurate predictive covariances are critical for good performance. These
advantages come at no additional computational cost over Gaussian processes.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. To appear in "The Seventeenth
International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS),
2014.
- …